Monfor Weekly Update

Monfor Weekly Update

The Bank of England has increased interest rates by 0.25%. Market analysts are predicting additional rate hikes in September and November, potentially pushing the Bank rate to 5.75% by the end of the year. The voting on this decision was divided into three perspectives, with particular emphasis placed on the future trajectory of inflation and employment.

Economic indicators present ongoing challenges. Nationwide has reported a significant 3.8% decline in house prices, marking the steepest drop in 14 years. Meanwhile, food price inflation has eased to its lowest point this year.

Across the Atlantic in the United States, the central bank appears to have attained the zenith of its current tightening phase, with the upper target rate now resting at 5.50%. Market forecasts are pointing towards potential interest rate reductions in the first half of the upcoming year. Fitch Ratings has downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+, though the market's response has been relatively subdued.

Likewise, the European Central Bank might have capped its recent interest rate increase, as the crucial deposit rate stands at 3.75% now. Despite this, the committee maintains a hawkish stance, leaving the door open for the possibility of another rate hike later in the year.

In currency markets, the vigor of the US dollar remains a driving force, causing GBP/USD to decline from 1.3000 to 1.2700, while GBP/EUR remains firmly within the established range of 1.1500 to 1.1750.

This week's focal points are the release of US inflation figures and UK growth data, both of which could steer short-term market sentiment.

Please note:  The news and information contained on this site should not be interpreted as advice or as a solicitation to offer to convert any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

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